Forecast 2010 & Beyond RECAP

Forecast 2010

If you weren't able to attend the Forecast 2010 & Beyond here is a quick recap of the speakers presentations.

Elliot Eisenberg
BEST LINE: Call Yourselves TAHOE EAST
National Economy - Out of the Woods
Reno & Nevada Economy - Not out of the woods • But not the worst in the country either
What Keeps Elliot Up at Night? - This is a Financial Recession, which means it is long and there will be prolonged economic pain.
Things are Getting Better: Bank Profits are Up, Demographics Will Help us Grow; The NV Population Grew by 1%, Residential Construction is looking Positive.
What Reno Needs to Do: Market Ourselves Better, Call Ourselves TAHOE EAST instead of Reno.


Elliot Eisenberg
NAHB Economist
Financial Outlook 		 
Tim Ruffin
BEST QUOTE: Flat is the New UP
Office Market - Did not overbuild, but Demand Evaporated which is different from the past. Tenants closed their doors or downsized. 3.88 years to a Balanced Market. Tenants that downsized in 2009; Centex, Landmark, Reynen & Bardis, Lennar and CLP
Industrial Market - Markets slowed as new speculative builders came online just as the economy was starting to slow. The result? A lot of big buildings that are vacant. Industrial tenants that downsized: Amazon • Dell • EDC • Bright Point
Retail Market - Retail Follows Rooftops. New retailers opened, the market slowed down and now some retailers are closing. Retail Tenants that closed: Gottschalks, Longs, Home & Garden Center. Over 100,000 sq ft vacated.
Tim Ruffin
Colliers International
Commercial Overview
 
 
BEST QUOTE: Will we Hit Bottom in 2010? The Answer is YES!
Mark Krueger Top 5 Builders -#5 R&B / Tanamera, #4 DR Horton, #3 KB Homes, #1 Lennar / Pulte
The Bad News -Only 495 Permits pulled in 2009. The Sales & Price Range goes back to 2001 prices. Only 21 Active Communities, averaging 22 sales per community
Future Lot Supply - 19,666 Homesites. This is a 25.8 yr supply based on 2009 sales. On a 12 yr average this equates to 6.9 yrs.
Final Map Supply - 3,100 Homesites. This is a 4.1 yr supply based on 2009 sales. On a 12 yr average this equates to a 1.1 yr supply.
Finished Lots - 3,346 Lots. This is a 4.4 yr supply based on 2009 sales. On a 12 yr average this equates to a 1.2 yr supply.
The Good News: Unsold new Home Inventory is Critically Low. Land Foreclosures are slowing, Builders are buying land. 73% are local builders.
Mark Krueger
Grubb & Ellis
Residential & Regional Land Overview
 
Ken Amundson
BEST QUOTE: Under $200K is the HOT market

Bright Spot -904 units sold in 2008, 1,422 Units sold in 2009.
Unsold Inventory -7.5 month supply. The under $200,000 market is hot, nothing to really purchase at this time.
MYTHBUSTERS - 1) True or False: Prices are falling every month.
False: Prices fell last Spring, But prices are stablizing.
2) Homes Sales are Down - True or False?
False: Sales are up every qtr of 2009 over 2008. Up 45% for the year.
3) Inventory is too High - True or False?
False: Under $300K is low, the High End of the market is too high. Inventory is 45% lower than 2008.

Ken Amundson
Coldwell Banker Select
Resale Overview